Market insights: Simon Quilty forecasts strong outlook for beef and lamb into 2026

Producers gathered at The Astor in Goulburn on Wednesday night to hear international meat and livestock market analyst Simon Quilty share his outlook on red meat markets, in an event hosted by Tablelands Farming Systems (TFS).

Mr Quilty, a respected voice in global market forecasting, said that while the record livestock prices of 2022 were not sustainable, current price levels are—and the outlook is positive for the next 18–24 months.

He predicts that the lamb market will peak around July 2026, with beef to follow in October–November 2026. Quilty’s forecast suggests that cows could reach 480¢/kg (liveweight) by September 2026. This prediction comes with a warning that Australian industry trading partners will need to avoid dipping into recession, which Mr Quilty thinks is something that will be avoided.

Quilty told the audience that producers will need to focus on rebuilding their herds and, for some, shifting their operations if prices continue to rise. If you’re 70% trading and 30% breeding now, by the end of next year you’ll want to be 70% breeding and 30% trading.”

He also highlighted the influence of global economics and trade dynamics on Australia’s livestock markets.

Australia’s strong beef position is being supported by tariffs imposed on U.S. beef exports to China, which are limiting American access to that market. Quilty noted that red meat producers benefit when China’s economy is strong and, therefore, redmeat demand is high.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to play a key role in driving demand for Australian lamb and its value.

 “They’re buying the expensive cuts…they’re the fourth-highest buyer by price and they’re taking the most volume,” Quilty said.

TFS Executive Officer, Camilla Beck, said the session provided valuable clarity and a positive outlook for producers into the next 2-3 years.

“We hope producers left the event feeling more confident in their breeding and trading decision for the next few seasons,” she said.

The event, funded through the Carbon Outreach Program, through the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, also focused on carbon markets and carbon farming.

Quilty noted that while there is currently no foreseeable premium for carbon-neutral meat, establishing baselines and measuring a farm’s emissions will soon be a requirement of producers selling through processors.